Can I Plug a 50 Percent Cut into my GTA Pro Forma Yet?

A: Not as a blanket assumption. The headline figure, up to 50 percent, describes a policy direction and a funding framework, not a province-wide rate you can apply to every model today. Here is the honest version. The $8.8-billion program funds municipalities that commit to reductions of 30 to 50 percent for at least three years, in priority municipalities. Some, like Toronto, have already acted and gone further on certain unit types. Others have not moved at all. So the right input for your pro forma is the specific, adopted rate in the specific municipality for your specific unit type, as of the date you are underwriting, with a note on when it expires. Treat anything beyond that as upside, not base case. It is also worth stress-testing what happens if the reduction lapses after three years, or if other charges rise to compensate. The direction of travel is favourable for developers. Building a model on the press release rather than the adopted bylaw is how you get hurt.